It’s a fool’s game to look too far ahead in sport; we’ve all been burnt before – but we simply can’t help ourselves as our region gets entertained by some red-hot full-forwards this year.
Longwarry’s Jason Wells has already kicked 108 goals; and this week should be joined by Wandin’s Aaron Mullett in the 100-club, with the Bulldogs star needing just two goals against Olinda Ferny Creek to reach a major milestone in his career.
Next cab off the rank should be Neerim South’s Mason McGarrity, who sits on 85 goals with five games remaining in the Ellinbank and District season.
McGarrity’s Cats play four teams that currently sit in the bottom half of the ladder over the next month, almost guaranteeing him a push towards football’s rarest air.
And the biggest story of them all may be saved for next, with Cora Lynn superstar Nathan Gardiner just 30 goals away from a third-consecutive 100-goal season.
Gardiner, a former Cranbourne junior, would join his boyhood hero Marc Holt on that illustrious honour roll of champions.
Having four players kick 100 goals in a season in the one region would be a rare achievement indeed.
And we may have fifth contender, with Hallam’s Jack Sharlassian needing a further 33 goals from five games to burst through triple figures.
Of course, kicking so many goals has ensured their teams will qualify for finals, with all bar Gardiner – who may only play one – almost guaranteed two finals outings to magnify their goal-kicking tallies.
So, let’s give the crystal ball a rub and see what the goal tallies of Wells, Mullett, McGarrity, Gardiner and Sharlassian might look like at the end of the home-and-away season.
There are two ways we can do this; by mathematical equation and by gut feel.
The mathematical equation is easy, basing the remainder of the season on what has taken place in the preceding rounds.
Based on mathematics, Mullett will finish the season with 141 goals, Wells 135 and McGarrity 131.
Simple mathematics say that Gardiner will finish the home-and-away season on 92…and Sharlassian 85!
But mathematics is for nerds…we’re going the all-important gut-feel to work out what’s right and wrong in the world.
We’re going for Wells to end the home-and-away season on 142 goals, slightly ahead of Mullett on 137.
McGarrity will be a little way back on 121, while Gardiner is cutting his quest for three-consecutive tons right down to the bone.
The next three weeks are huge for the fast-leading, high-leaping and beautiful-kicking full forward.
Facts and figures from earlier in the year would suggest Gardiner will kick a combined 13 goals against Kilcunda-Bass, Dalyston and Korumburra-Bena over the next three rounds.
That would leave him on 83 goals with games against the top three to come; Tooradin-Dalmore, Phillip Island and Nar Nar Goon.
But expect a renewed focus on the big fella to smash that 13-goal figure to pieces.
We’re predicting 25 goals across his next three matches: leaving Gardiner just five short with three matches to come.
He will join his boyhood hero on his home-deck at Cora Lynn; in either round 18 or 19, against Tooradin-Dalmore or Phillip Island respectively…and end the season on a history-making 105 goals.
As for Sharlassian, well it looks like he will have to wait until finals for his 100-goal season to be completed.
Mathematics say 85, but gut-feel says 90…leaving him with 10 goals to get in two finals games.
Grand final day it is…we’re tipping a premiership for Hallam Hawks and 100-goals on the same day!
What a way that would be to sign off on a magnificent season for goalkickers.
THE MILESTONE MAKERS
JASON WELLS – LONGWARRY/ELLINBANK
108 Goals in 13 matches
6, 7, 13, 6, 8, 5, 4, 18, 5, 3, 20, 4, 9
Average: 8.31
• Upcoming Games
Buln Buln (3rd), Ellinbank (6th), Nilma-Darnum (9th), Lang Lang (5th), Nyora (10th).
Mathematical Prediction: 135 Goals.
Gut-Feel Prediction: 142 Goals (Plus Finals).
AARON MULLETT – WANDIN/OUTER EAST
98 Goals in 12 matches
9, 7, 10, 12, 6, 7, 12, 6, 6, 8, 5, 10
Average: 8.17
• Upcoming Games
Olinda Ferny Creek (2nd), Healesville (4th), Officer (8th), Gembrook-Cockatoo (9th), Upwey-Tecoma (7th).
Mathematical Prediction: 141 Goals.
Gut-Feel Prediction: 137 Goals (Plus Finals).
MASON MCGARRITY – NEERIM SOUTH/ELLINBANK
85 Goals in 13 matches
5, 4, 1, 1, 6, 18, 12, 5, 12, 5, 1, 5, 10
Average: 6.54
• Upcoming Games
Yarragon (7th), Poowong (12th), Nyora (10th), Nilma-Darnum (9th), Buln Buln (3rd).
Mathematical Prediction: 131 Goals.
Gut-Feel Prediction: 121 Goals (Plus Finals).
NATHAN GARDINER – CORA LYNN/WEST GIPPSLAND
70 Goals in 12 matches
2, 5, 7, 6, 4, 2, 10, 3, 5, 2, 12, 12
Average: 5.84
• Upcoming Games
Kilcunda-Bass (6th), Dalyston (11th), Korumburra-Bena (10th), Tooradin-Dalmore (2nd), Phillip Island (3rd), Nar Nar Goon (1st).
Mathematical Prediction: 92 Goals.
Gut-Feel Prediction: 105 Goals (Plus Finals).
JACK SHARLASSIAN – HALLAM/SOUTHERN 4
67 Goals in 13 matches
4, 4, 7, 2, 3, 6, 8 ,10, 1, 13, 1, 2, 6
Average: 5.15
• Upcoming Games
South Yarra (5th), Dandenong West (2nd), Narre South (6th), Lyndale (4th), Moorabbin (7th).
Mathematical Prediction: 85 Goals.
Gut-Feel Prediction: 90 Goals (Plus Finals).
