With the election day this weekend, it’s predicted that the “status quo may prevail” in the South East for the next three years.
The final opinion polls before the 3 May election predict the Albanese Government with a 52-48 edge over his opponent Peter Dutton in the two-party preferred vote.
The five-week campaign has seen the Coalition falter in their previous surge in the polls throughout 2024.
Head of Politics at Monash University, Dr Zareh Ghazarian said it’s “still a very tight contest.”
“Through the campaign, the Coalition has not seemed to have gained significant momentum. Labor looks to be in the best position to form government,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“Whether it will be a minority or majority government is hard to determine.”
The local seats of Bruce, La Trobe and Monash are held by Labor, Liberal and a Liberal-turned-independent, respectively.
Dr Ghazarian says it seems these contests may not see significant change.
“It looks to be that the status quo may prevail in these seats,” he said.
Bruce is held by Labor’s Julian Hill with over a five percent margin. The Coalition has pushed heavily for the seat under Liberal candidate Zahid Safi, but a series of controversies exposed by the media has hampered the campaign.
La Trobe is a safe Liberal seat, MP Jason Wood looks set to hold with his strong eight percent margin to secure more than 20 years serving Parliament.
Monash is a contest beyond the major parties with incumbent, former-Liberal Russell Broadbent providing a wild card by running as an independent.
The Liberals under Mary Aldred hope to retake the former stronghold, which is held by a 2.9 percent margin.
Labor’s Tully Fletcher and Climate 200-backed independent Deb Leonard are also hoping for a strong showing in the contest.
The Liberals look likely to retake the seat.
However, Dr Ghazarian says the eastern and south eastern seats will be ones to watch closely on Saturday night.
“If the Coalition can’t hold their seats in these areas, then that will indicate they are in a weaker position to form government,” he said.
“And if the Labor Party is unable to hold their seats, then they may be weakened and the polls may prove incorrect.”
The Gazette will be reporting results on election night, you can follow the reporting of local seats on pakenhamgazette.com.au
