Razor’s edge

By Jade Lawton and Danny Buttler
SOME 5000 new voters could hold the key to Labor MP Tammy Lobato’s bid to hold the seat of Gembrook.
The development of new housing estates has seen the number of enrolled voters in Gembrook jump since the 2006 election.
And Ms Lobato’s ability to court those constituents could mean the difference between victory and defeat.
Despite the new voters, political pundits have predicted Ms Lobato, who holds Gembrook by just 0.8 per cent, will lose the seat to Liberal Brad Battin.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said Ms Lobato would struggle to win a third term, with a predicted state-wide swing to the Coalition likely to impact on Labor’s slim margin.
“It means there are a whole lot of new people who would have heard of Tammy Lobato as the sitting member,” Mr Green said.
“If the Labor Party is doing its job, it would have written to each of these new enrolments as soon as they arrived.”
Greens candidate Brent Hall could also prove to be a major blow to Ms Lobato’s campaign, with his preferences not directed to Labor.
Mr Hall could not be contacted by the time of going to press.
Both Ms Lobato and Mr Battin said they believed it would be a close contest.
Both candidates have promised to build a special school in the region. The Coalition has committed $20 million for a new secondary college in Officer, while the ALP has already spent $5 million purchasing land for secondary education.
Ms Lobato has promised a new ambulance station, while Mr Battin has promised to duplicate Cardinia Road.
Eight other candidates have thrown their hat in the ring for Gembrook, including Mr Hall.
In Bass, incumbent Liberal MP Ken Smith is likely to remain in power after Saturday.
Mr Smith has promised $50 million for a Kooweerup Bypass and a $7 million upgrade of Kooweerup Secondary College if he and the Coalition are elected this weekend.
The Victorian Electoral Commission states that Bass would need a 5.53 per cent swing to Labor to see ALP candidate Gerry Lonergan claim the seat of Mr Smith.
“Realistically, I have to say I probably have a slim chance of being elected,” Mr Lonergan said.
“But I really hope I have had an impact of some sort.”
Also in the running for Bass is Greens candidate Neil Rankine and the Country Alliance’s Bruce Rogers.