Rising crime is forcing some businesses to close and deterring new entrepreneurs, raising concerns that the economy could face slower growth, fewer jobs, and weaker community resilience.
Dr Brianna Chesser, associate professor of criminology and justice at RMIT University, said the trend is reshaping the business landscape.
“There has been a steady rise in crime targeting businesses over the last 10 years,” she said.
“This has occurred alongside a sharp rise in crimes against people and property more generally such as car jacking, home invasion and robbery/ armed robbery.
“There have also been a spate of crimes targeting tobacco stores in Melbourne’s suburbs which may well be acting as a deterrent.”
Small businesses have more vulnerabilities when compared to big corporations as they would personally incur the cost of lost stock/ damage, any clean up and then raised insurance premiums.
Dr Chesser says a return to a safer or crime-free environment is unlikely, describing the current situation as “the new normal for small businesses and large businesses alike”.
“While this change may seem alarming it should not act as a deterrent for a new business with a strong business plan,” she added.
“If there are particular worries about vulnerability to criminal activities then it may be best to consult a business risk analyst or a safety expert to determine if there are any potential weaknesses in your proposed business plan or property.”
She also warned that crime often brings a second battle for small business owners — dealing with insurance companies.
Dr Chesser urged businesses to ensure their insurance plans provide adequate coverage and consider shopping around for better options.
In a street vox pop with the Gazette on the future of local business, many said they were already considering giving up or knew someone who had – after being direct victims of crime or fearing they would become one.
Some shared that others are relocating to lower-crime suburbs or shifting their businesses entirely online.
Sandra Evans, owner of Toyworld Pakenham, has felt the impact firsthand. In February, her store was among 11 in the area whose windows were damaged overnight, and just last week it was targeted again in another break-in.
“Crime is going up, cameras are not working and there is no shortage of police. I’m on the fence right now about whether to continue,” Evans said.
“These thieves are wearing sunglasses, balaclavas; they don’t care about cameras. They only need five minutes to break the glass and take what they need. They recently broke into a store near us, and then mine again.”
Another local business owner in Berwick, who preferred to remain anonymous, said it’s only a matter of time before crime strikes.
“No matter where you are – in Pakenham or Toorak—no area is safe,” he said.
“You have to be resilient and alert all the time. You could get hit today or tomorrow; you never know when, but it is coming.”
The latest figures from the Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) reveal 29,858 offences were recorded in Casey in the year to June 2025, a 20.5 per cent increase from 24,782 the year before.
In Cardinia, offences also jumped, with 9,991 reported in the same period compared with 7,830 in 2024.
The most common locations for crime in Casey included shopping complexes (1,157 offences), service stations (1,074) and other theft (2,560).
In Cardinia businesses were not spared either, with 405 offences at business offices, 382 at service stations and other thefts rising to 994.
